Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-04-17 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

Win Probability

TOR: 59.9%

DET: 40.1%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.37

DET: 2.69

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Joseph Woll	34	31	3	91.2%	2.12	1	-0.88
DET	Cam Talbot	20	16	4	80.0%	2.65	3	-1.35

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • TOR at home vs DET: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-21	TOR 1 - 2 DET	DET	DET
2025-12-28	DET 3 - 2 TOR	DET	DET
2025-10-13	TOR 2 - 3 DET	DET	TOR
2025-10-11	DET 6 - 3 TOR	DET	DET
2025-04-17	TOR 4 - 3 DET	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	13	2	1.08
1	DET	14	1	0.91
2	TOR	8	0	0.28
2	DET	19	0	0.78
3	TOR	8	0	0.74
3	DET	8	0	0.44
4	TOR	2	1	0.55
4	DET	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.4 - 2.7