Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2025-04-17 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 Detroit Red Wings
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 61.9%
DET: 38.1%
Expected Goals
TOR: 3.37
DET: 2.54
Total Goals
Median: 5.7
Over 5.5: 53%
Over 6.5: 38%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA
DET
John Gibson - 29-22-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA
| Stat | TOR | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.914 | 0.893 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.863 | 0.862 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.951 | 0.968 |
| GAA | 2.74 | 2.97 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • TOR at home vs DET: 2-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-21 | TOR 1 - 2 DET | DET | DET |
| 2025-12-28 | DET 3 - 2 TOR | DET | DET |
| 2025-10-13 | TOR 2 - 3 DET | DET | DET |
| 2025-10-11 | DET 6 - 3 TOR | DET | DET |
| 2025-04-17 | TOR 4 - 3 DET | TOR | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17:53 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 19:19 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 02:16 | DET | Goal |
| 2 | 05:50 | DET | Goal |
| 3 | 03:43 | DET | Goal |
| 3 | 19:58 | TOR | Goal |
| 4 | 00:56 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 61.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 5.9
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 Detroit Red Wings
Expected: 3.4 - 2.5
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