Carolina Hurricanes at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-04-17 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 7 - 5 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 45.4%

CAR: 54.6%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.16

CAR: 3.42

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	33	28	5	84.8%	2.74	3	-2.26
CAR	Frederik Andersen	32	25	7	78.1%	4.22	4	-2.78

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 77% • OTT at home vs CAR: 2-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-25	OTT 2 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-04-23	OTT 1 - 2 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-04-20	CAR 3 - 2 OTT	CAR	CAR
2026-04-18	CAR 2 - 0 OTT	CAR	CAR
2026-04-05	OTT 6 - 3 CAR	OTT	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	16	0	1.30
1	CAR	17	1	0.97
2	OTT	14	1	0.99
2	CAR	16	1	0.97
3	OTT	17	3	1.94
3	CAR	8	1	0.79

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 12.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 7 - 5 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 3.2 - 3.4