Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2025-04-17 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 4 - 0 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

NYR: 51.4%

TBL: 48.6%

Expected Goals

NYR: 2.96

TBL: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • NYR at home vs TBL: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	TBL 2 - 4 NYR	NYR	TBL
2025-11-29	NYR 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-12	TBL 3 - 7 NYR	NYR	TBL
2025-04-17	NYR 4 - 0 TBL	NYR	NYR
2025-04-07	NYR 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	5	0	0.17
1	TBL	8	1	0.66
2	NYR	19	0	1.07
2	TBL	16	0	0.84
3	NYR	11	1	1.08
3	TBL	12	0	0.76

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 4 - 0 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.0 - 2.9