Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers NHL Predictions
2025-04-17 • Madison Square Garden
New York Rangers 4 - 0 Tampa Bay Lightning
🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYR: 44.5%
TBL: 55.5%
Expected Goals
NYR: 3.02
TBL: 2.62
Total Goals
Median: 4.6
Over 5.5: 38%
Over 6.5: 26%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYR
Igor Shesterkin - 25-19-6 | 0.912 SV% | 2.50 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
| Stat | NYR | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.912 | 0.919 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.914 | 0.615 |
| GAA | 2.51 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • NYR at home vs TBL: 2-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | TBL 2 - 4 NYR | NYR | TBL |
| 2025-11-29 | NYR 1 - 4 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-11-12 | TBL 3 - 7 NYR | NYR | TBL |
| 2025-04-17 | NYR 4 - 0 TBL | NYR | TBL |
| 2025-04-07 | NYR 1 - 5 TBL | TBL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 01:02 | NYR | Goal |
| 3 | 04:02 | NYR | Goal |
| 3 | 12:50 | NYR | Goal |
| 3 | 16:24 | NYR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 55.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 4.0
Expected: 5.6
Score Breakdown
New York Rangers 4 - 0 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 3.0 - 2.6
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