Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2025-04-17 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 4 - 0 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 45.8%

TBL: 54.2%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.02

TBL: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 45%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

TBL

Jonas Johansson - 9-6-1 | 0.894 SV% | 2.83 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	27	27	0	100.0%	2.26	1	2.26
TBL	Jonas Johansson	22	18	4	81.8%	2.32	1	-1.68

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • NYR at home vs TBL: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	TBL 2 - 4 NYR	NYR	TBL
2025-11-29	NYR 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-12	TBL 3 - 7 NYR	NYR	TBL
2025-04-17	NYR 4 - 0 TBL	NYR	TBL
2025-04-07	NYR 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	5	0	0.17
1	TBL	8	1	0.66
2	NYR	19	0	1.07
2	TBL	16	0	0.84
3	NYR	11	1	1.08
3	TBL	12	0	0.76

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 4 - 0 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1