Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-04-20 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 6 - 2 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

TOR: 58.5%

OTT: 41.5%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.34

OTT: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • TOR at home vs OTT: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	OTT 3 - 1 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-03-21	OTT 5 - 2 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-02-28	TOR 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-27	TOR 7 - 5 OTT	TOR	OTT
2025-05-01	OTT 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	12	2	0.85
1	OTT	17	1	0.84
2	TOR	14	2	1.69
2	OTT	16	0	0.93
3	TOR	11	1	1.04
3	OTT	21	2	1.74

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 6 - 2 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0