Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-04-20 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 6 - 2 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

TOR: 59.3%

OTT: 40.7%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.42

OTT: 2.48

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 42%

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	33	31	2	93.9%	3.51	3	1.51
OTT	Linus Ullmark	24	18	6	75.0%	3.58	5	-2.42

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • TOR at home vs OTT: 6-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-03	TOR 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	TOR
2026-04-15	OTT 3 - 1 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-03-21	OTT 5 - 2 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-02-28	TOR 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-27	TOR 7 - 5 OTT	TOR	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	12	2	0.85
1	OTT	17	1	0.84
2	TOR	14	2	1.69
2	OTT	16	0	0.93
3	TOR	11	1	1.04
3	OTT	21	2	1.74

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 6 - 2 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.4 - 2.5