Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2025-04-29 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 0 - 4 Ottawa Senators
🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 57.8%
OTT: 42.2%
Expected Goals
TOR: 2.84
OTT: 2.97
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 55%
Over 6.5: 39%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
OTT
Linus Ullmark - 16-8-5 | 0.884 SV% | 2.86 GAA
| Stat | TOR | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.914 | 0.881 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.910 | 0.882 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.839 | 0.714 |
| GAA | 2.74 | 2.95 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 43% • TOR at home vs OTT: 3-5
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-27 | TOR 7 - 5 OTT | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-05-01 | OTT 2 - 4 TOR | TOR | OTT |
| 2025-04-29 | TOR 0 - 4 OTT | OTT | TOR |
| 2025-04-26 | OTT 4 - 3 TOR | OTT | OTT |
| 2025-04-24 | OTT 2 - 3 TOR | TOR | OTT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 03:46 | OTT | Goal |
| 3 | 19:13 | OTT | Goal |
| 3 | 17:09 | OTT | Goal |
| 3 | 08:24 | OTT | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 57.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 4.0
Expected: 5.8
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 0 - 4 Ottawa Senators
Expected: 2.8 - 3.0