Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-04-22 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 6 Florida Panthers

Win Probability

TBL: 45.5%

FLA: 54.5%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.25

FLA: 3.54

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • TBL at home vs FLA: 3-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	TBL 6 - 1 FLA	TBL	TBL
2025-12-27	FLA 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-12-15	TBL 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	TBL
2025-11-15	FLA 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	FLA
2025-04-30	TBL 3 - 6 FLA	FLA	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	17	2	0.98
1	FLA	12	0	0.81
2	TBL	13	0	0.58
2	FLA	9	1	1.41
3	TBL	11	0	0.44
3	FLA	6	0	0.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 6 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.2 - 3.5