Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2025-04-24 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 0 - 2 Florida Panthers
🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 60.7%
FLA: 39.3%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.15
FLA: 2.85
Total Goals
Median: 5.9
Over 5.5: 54%
Over 6.5: 38%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
FLA
Sergei Bobrovsky - 21-17-1 | 0.871 SV% | 3.13 GAA
| Stat | TBL | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.888 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.921 | 0.837 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.952 | 0.892 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.80 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 38% • TBL at home vs FLA: 3-8
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-05 | TBL 6 - 1 FLA | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-12-27 | FLA 2 - 4 TBL | TBL | FLA |
| 2025-12-15 | TBL 2 - 5 FLA | FLA | TBL |
| 2025-11-15 | FLA 1 - 3 TBL | TBL | FLA |
| 2025-04-30 | TBL 3 - 6 FLA | FLA | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 04:15 | FLA | Goal |
| 3 | 19:56 | FLA | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 60.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 2.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 0 - 2 Florida Panthers
Expected: 3.2 - 2.9