Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-04-24 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 0 - 2 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 54.9%

FLA: 45.1%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.32

FLA: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 38%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	23	21	2	91.3%	3.36	4	1.36
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	19	19	0	100.0%	2.64	0	2.64

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • TBL at home vs FLA: 3-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	TBL 6 - 1 FLA	TBL	TBL
2025-12-27	FLA 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-12-15	TBL 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	TBL
2025-11-15	FLA 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-04-30	TBL 3 - 6 FLA	FLA	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	14	0	0.93
1	FLA	12	0	0.38
2	TBL	15	0	0.81
2	FLA	10	0	0.71
3	TBL	10	0	0.90
3	FLA	11	4	2.27

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 0 - 2 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1