Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-04-26 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 1 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

FLA: 51.0%

TBL: 49.0%

Expected Goals

FLA: 2.98

TBL: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	22	17	5	77.3%	3.18	2	-1.82
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	34	33	1	97.1%	2.70	0	1.70

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • FLA at home vs TBL: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	TBL 6 - 1 FLA	TBL	TBL
2025-12-27	FLA 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-12-15	TBL 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	TBL
2025-11-15	FLA 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-04-30	TBL 3 - 6 FLA	FLA	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	15	0	1.13
1	TBL	8	1	0.53
2	FLA	16	0	0.87
2	TBL	16	0	1.06
3	FLA	13	0	0.71
3	TBL	7	1	1.59

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 1 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2