Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-04-30 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 6 Florida Panthers

Win Probability

TBL: 48.8%

FLA: 51.2%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.22

FLA: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 27-23-1 | 0.877 SV% | 3.07 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TBL at home vs FLA: 3-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	TBL 6 - 1 FLA	TBL	TBL
2025-12-27	FLA 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-12-15	TBL 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	TBL
2025-11-15	FLA 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-04-30	TBL 3 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Time	Team	Scorer
1	02:33	TBL	Goal
1	05:21	TBL	Goal
1	10:06	FLA	Goal
1	12:16	TBL	Goal
2	00:52	FLA	Goal
2	09:57	TBL	Goal
2	15:13	FLA	Goal
3	13:02	FLA	Goal
3	15:36	FLA	Goal

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 6 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0