Washington Capitals at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-04-25 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 6 - 3 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 48.8%

WSH: 51.2%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.11

WSH: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 55%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • MTL at home vs WSH: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	MTL 6 - 2 WSH	MTL	MTL
2026-01-13	WSH 3 - 2 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-11-20	MTL 4 - 8 WSH	WSH	MTL
2025-04-30	WSH 4 - 1 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-04-27	MTL 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	21	1	1.45
1	WSH	11	2	1.15
2	MTL	20	0	1.35
2	WSH	12	0	0.61
3	MTL	20	2	1.10
3	WSH	9	1	0.61

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 6 - 3 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.1 - 2.9