Washington Capitals at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-04-27 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 5 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

MTL: 48.1%

WSH: 51.9%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.08

WSH: 3.22

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jakub Dobes	26	21	5	80.8%	3.81	2	-1.19
WSH	Logan Thompson	18	16	2	88.9%	2.00	2	-0.00

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 86% • MTL at home vs WSH: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	MTL 6 - 2 WSH	MTL	MTL
2026-01-13	WSH 3 - 2 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-11-20	MTL 4 - 8 WSH	WSH	MTL
2025-04-30	WSH 4 - 1 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-04-27	MTL 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	7	1	0.54
1	WSH	13	0	1.00
2	MTL	12	1	0.76
2	WSH	18	0	1.11
3	MTL	14	0	0.70
3	WSH	11	2	1.71

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 5 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2