Washington Capitals at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions
2025-04-27 • Centre Bell
Montreal Canadiens 2 - 5 Washington Capitals
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MTL: 45.5%
WSH: 54.5%
Expected Goals
MTL: 3.03
WSH: 3.22
Total Goals
Median: 6.3
Over 5.5: 62%
Over 6.5: 47%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 29-10-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.78 GAA
WSH
Logan Thompson - 31-21-6 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA
| Stat | MTL | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.889 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.891 | 0.912 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.889 | 0.920 |
| GAA | 3.01 | 2.39 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 86% • MTL at home vs WSH: 3-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | MTL 6 - 2 WSH | MTL | MTL |
| 2026-01-13 | WSH 3 - 2 MTL | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-11-20 | MTL 4 - 8 WSH | WSH | MTL |
| 2025-04-30 | WSH 4 - 1 MTL | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-04-27 | MTL 2 - 5 WSH | WSH | WSH |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 01:25 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 10:33 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 18:32 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 06:39 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 16:23 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 17:21 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 19:05 | WSH | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 54.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Montreal Canadiens 2 - 5 Washington Capitals
Expected: 3.0 - 3.2
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