Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions
2025-04-30 • Capital One Arena
Washington Capitals 4 - 1 Montreal Canadiens
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WSH: 59.5%
MTL: 40.5%
Expected Goals
WSH: 2.89
MTL: 2.87
Total Goals
Median: 4.4
Over 5.5: 34%
Over 6.5: 22%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WSH
Logan Thompson - 31-21-6 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 29-10-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.78 GAA
| Stat | WSH | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.889 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.912 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.920 | 0.889 |
| GAA | 2.39 | 3.01 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 86% • WSH at home vs MTL: 5-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | MTL 6 - 2 WSH | MTL | MTL |
| 2026-01-13 | WSH 3 - 2 MTL | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-11-20 | MTL 4 - 8 WSH | WSH | MTL |
| 2025-04-30 | WSH 4 - 1 MTL | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-04-27 | MTL 2 - 5 WSH | WSH | WSH |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 09:12 | WSH | Goal |
| 1 | 11:15 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 16:59 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 02:40 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 19:34 | WSH | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 59.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.8
Score Breakdown
Washington Capitals 4 - 1 Montreal Canadiens
Expected: 2.9 - 2.9
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