Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-04-30 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 4 - 1 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

WSH: 60.5%

MTL: 39.5%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.04

MTL: 2.86

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • WSH at home vs MTL: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	MTL 6 - 2 WSH	MTL	MTL
2026-01-13	WSH 3 - 2 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-11-20	MTL 4 - 8 WSH	WSH	MTL
2025-04-30	WSH 4 - 1 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-04-27	MTL 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	18	1	0.98
1	MTL	15	0	1.14
2	WSH	15	2	1.58
2	MTL	11	1	0.84
3	WSH	11	2	1.34
3	MTL	21	2	2.01

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 4 - 1 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.0 - 2.9