Winnipeg Jets at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2025-05-02 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 5 - 2 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

Win Probability

STL: 49.9%

WPG: 50.1%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.38

WPG: 2.81

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Jordan Binnington	23	21	2	91.3%	4.17	2	2.17
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	27	22	5	81.5%	3.26	3	-1.74

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • STL at home vs WPG: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	STL 2 - 3 WPG	WPG	STL
2026-03-15	WPG 3 - 2 STL	WPG	STL
2026-01-20	WPG 3 - 1 STL	WPG	WPG
2025-12-17	STL 1 - 0 WPG	STL	WPG
2025-05-04	WPG 4 - 3 STL	WPG	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	10	1	0.93
1	WPG	6	0	0.34
2	STL	21	2	1.59
2	WPG	16	1	1.74
3	STL	8	0	0.74
3	WPG	24	1	2.09

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 5 - 2 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.4 - 2.8