Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions
2025-04-19 • American Airlines Center
Dallas Stars 1 - 5 Colorado Avalanche
🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
DAL: 53.5%
COL: 46.5%
Expected Goals
DAL: 2.32
COL: 3.54
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 54%
Over 6.5: 40%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 23-10-4 | 0.897 SV% | 2.73 GAA
COL
Scott Wedgewood - 21-4-5 | 0.913 SV% | 2.29 GAA
| Stat | DAL | COL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.907 | 0.919 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.860 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.897 | 0.818 |
| GAA | 2.57 | 2.13 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • DAL at home vs COL: 5-5
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-11 | COL 4 - 5 DAL | DAL | COL |
| 2025-05-03 | DAL 4 - 2 COL | DAL | DAL |
| 2025-05-01 | COL 7 - 4 DAL | COL | COL |
| 2025-04-28 | DAL 6 - 2 COL | DAL | DAL |
| 2025-04-26 | COL 4 - 0 DAL | COL | COL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 16:38 | COL | Goal |
| 2 | 09:30 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 17:03 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 16:52 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 12:56 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 06:45 | COL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 53.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 5.9
Score Breakdown
Dallas Stars 1 - 5 Colorado Avalanche
Expected: 2.3 - 3.5