Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-05-01 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 7 - 4 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

COL: 76.1%

DAL: 23.9%

Expected Goals

COL: 4.07

DAL: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 54% • COL at home vs DAL: 5-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	DAL 0 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-18	COL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	COL
2026-03-06	DAL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-10-11	COL 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-05-03	DAL 4 - 2 COL	DAL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	30	0	1.25
1	DAL	14	0	0.33
2	COL	23	1	1.94
2	DAL	14	1	1.44
3	COL	17	3	1.79
3	DAL	12	0	0.34

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 76.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 7.1

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 7 - 4 Dallas Stars

Expected: 4.1 - 3.0