Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-05-03 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 2 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Win (62% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 37.8%

COL: 62.2%

Expected Goals

DAL: 2.66

COL: 3.34

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 50%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	27	25	2	92.6%	3.15	3	1.15
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	19	15	4	78.9%	3.00	2	-1.00

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • DAL at home vs COL: 7-10

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-13	DAL 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-04-04	DAL 0 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-18	COL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	COL
2026-03-06	DAL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-10-11	COL 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	10	0	0.47
1	COL	12	2	1.06
2	DAL	12	0	0.86
2	COL	15	0	0.76
3	DAL	10	2	1.67
3	COL	21	1	1.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 2 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.7 - 3.3