Minnesota Wild at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-04-20 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 2 Minnesota Wild

Win Probability

VGK: 64.0%

MIN: 36.0%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.68

MIN: 2.71

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	20	18	2	90.0%	2.19	1	0.19
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	27	23	4	85.2%	3.34	1	-0.66

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • VGK at home vs MIN: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-06	VGK 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	VGK
2025-12-29	VGK 2 - 5 MIN	MIN	VGK
2025-11-16	MIN 3 - 2 VGK	MIN	VGK
2025-05-01	MIN 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-29	VGK 3 - 2 MIN	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	19	0	0.73
1	MIN	14	0	0.66
2	VGK	12	0	0.85
2	MIN	17	1	1.06
3	VGK	17	1	1.76
3	MIN	12	0	0.47

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 2 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.7 - 2.7