Minnesota Wild at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-04-22 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 5 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 60.5%

MIN: 39.5%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.27

MIN: 2.94

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • VGK at home vs MIN: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-06	VGK 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	VGK
2025-12-29	VGK 2 - 5 MIN	MIN	VGK
2025-11-16	MIN 3 - 2 VGK	MIN	MIN
2025-05-01	MIN 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-29	VGK 3 - 2 MIN	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	16	0	0.79
1	MIN	17	0	1.15
2	VGK	23	1	1.32
2	MIN	5	0	0.33
3	VGK	16	0	0.87
3	MIN	13	2	1.39

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 5 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9