Vegas Golden Knights at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions
2025-04-24 • Xcel Energy Center
Minnesota Wild 5 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights
🚨 Upset Win (68% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MIN: 31.9%
VGK: 68.1%
Expected Goals
MIN: 2.67
VGK: 3.44
Total Goals
Median: 5.7
Over 5.5: 58%
Over 6.5: 42%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MIN
Filip Gustavsson - 28-15-6 | 0.903 SV% | 2.69 GAA
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-10-6 | 0.893 SV% | 2.59 GAA
| Stat | MIN | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.912 | 0.895 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.836 | 0.879 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.917 | 0.897 |
| GAA | 2.47 | 2.50 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • MIN at home vs VGK: 2-5
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | VGK 2 - 4 MIN | MIN | VGK |
| 2025-12-29 | VGK 2 - 5 MIN | MIN | VGK |
| 2025-11-16 | MIN 3 - 2 VGK | MIN | VGK |
| 2025-05-01 | MIN 2 - 3 VGK | VGK | VGK |
| 2025-04-29 | VGK 3 - 2 MIN | VGK | VGK |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03:13 | MIN | Goal |
| 1 | 06:51 | MIN | Goal |
| 1 | 10:48 | MIN | Goal |
| 2 | 11:05 | MIN | Goal |
| 2 | 19:58 | MIN | Goal |
| 3 | 11:34 | MIN | Goal |
| 3 | 18:27 | MIN | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 68.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Minnesota Wild 5 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights
Expected: 2.7 - 3.4
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