Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-05-05 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 4 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 49.3%

FLA: 50.7%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.28

FLA: 3.34

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 63% • TOR at home vs FLA: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	TOR 2 - 6 FLA	FLA	TOR
2026-02-26	FLA 5 - 1 TOR	FLA	FLA
2026-01-06	TOR 4 - 1 FLA	TOR	FLA
2025-12-02	FLA 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	FLA
2025-05-18	TOR 1 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	20	1	1.35
1	FLA	6	0	0.61
2	TOR	8	0	0.53
2	FLA	14	0	0.76
3	TOR	17	2	1.86
3	FLA	27	0	1.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 4 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.3 - 3.3