Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-05-07 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 48.0%

FLA: 52.0%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.98

FLA: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 63% • TOR at home vs FLA: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	TOR 2 - 6 FLA	FLA	TOR
2026-02-26	FLA 5 - 1 TOR	FLA	FLA
2026-01-06	TOR 4 - 1 FLA	TOR	FLA
2025-12-02	FLA 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	FLA
2025-05-18	TOR 1 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	9	1	0.74
1	FLA	10	1	0.67
2	TOR	10	0	0.70
2	FLA	17	0	1.03
3	TOR	13	1	0.88
3	FLA	24	1	1.35

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2