Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-05-11 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 2 - 0 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

FLA: 69.1%

TOR: 30.9%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.37

TOR: 2.30

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 37%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 63% • FLA at home vs TOR: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	TOR 2 - 6 FLA	FLA	TOR
2026-02-26	FLA 5 - 1 TOR	FLA	FLA
2026-01-06	TOR 4 - 1 FLA	TOR	FLA
2025-12-02	FLA 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	FLA
2025-05-18	TOR 1 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	23	1	1.18
1	TOR	7	0	0.26
2	FLA	23	1	1.51
2	TOR	17	0	1.07
3	FLA	12	0	0.53
3	TOR	19	1	1.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 69.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 2 - 0 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.4 - 2.3