Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-05-16 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 0 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)

Win Probability

FLA: 64.7%

TOR: 35.3%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.33

TOR: 2.51

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 40%

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	17	15	2	88.2%	1.94	0	-0.06
TOR	Joseph Woll	22	22	0	100.0%	1.87	0	1.87

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 79% • FLA at home vs TOR: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	TOR 2 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA
2026-02-26	FLA 5 - 1 TOR	FLA	FLA
2026-01-06	TOR 4 - 1 FLA	TOR	TOR
2025-12-02	FLA 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	FLA
2025-05-18	TOR 1 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	FLA	8	0.33
1	TOR	14	0.84
2	FLA	23	1.04
2	TOR	9	0.59
3	FLA	16	0.50
3	TOR	8	0.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 0 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.3 - 2.5