Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions
2025-05-16 • Amerant Bank Arena
Florida Panthers 0 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs
🚨 Upset Loss (66% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
FLA: 66.2%
TOR: 33.8%
Expected Goals
FLA: 3.61
TOR: 2.36
Total Goals
Median: 5.3
Over 5.5: 42%
Over 6.5: 29%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
FLA
Sergei Bobrovsky - 27-23-1 | 0.877 SV% | 3.07 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA
| Stat | FLA | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.888 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.860 | 0.863 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.915 | 0.922 |
| GAA | 2.80 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 63% • FLA at home vs TOR: 7-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | TOR 2 - 6 FLA | FLA | FLA |
| 2026-02-26 | FLA 5 - 1 TOR | FLA | FLA |
| 2026-01-06 | TOR 4 - 1 FLA | TOR | FLA |
| 2025-12-02 | FLA 1 - 4 TOR | TOR | FLA |
| 2025-05-18 | TOR 1 - 6 FLA | FLA | FLA |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 06:20 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 14:17 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 66.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 2.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Florida Panthers 0 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 3.6 - 2.4
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