Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-05-16 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 0 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (66% underdog)

Win Probability

FLA: 65.7%

TOR: 34.3%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.41

TOR: 2.47

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 41%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 63% • FLA at home vs TOR: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	TOR 2 - 6 FLA	FLA	TOR
2026-02-26	FLA 5 - 1 TOR	FLA	FLA
2026-01-06	TOR 4 - 1 FLA	TOR	FLA
2025-12-02	FLA 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	FLA
2025-05-18	TOR 1 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	FLA	8	0.33
1	TOR	14	0.84
2	FLA	23	1.04
2	TOR	9	0.59
3	FLA	16	0.50
3	TOR	8	0.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 65.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 0 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.4 - 2.5