Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2025-05-18 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 6 Florida Panthers
🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 53.6%
FLA: 46.4%
Expected Goals
TOR: 2.85
FLA: 3.48
Total Goals
Median: 6.2
Over 5.5: 65%
Over 6.5: 47%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
FLA
Sergei Bobrovsky - 21-17-1 | 0.871 SV% | 3.13 GAA
| Stat | TOR | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.914 | 0.888 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.910 | 0.837 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.966 | 0.885 |
| GAA | 2.74 | 2.80 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 71% • TOR at home vs FLA: 6-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | FLA | ||
| 2026-01-06 | TOR 4 - 1 FLA | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-12-02 | FLA 1 - 4 TOR | TOR | FLA |
| 2025-05-18 | TOR 1 - 6 FLA | FLA | TOR |
| 2025-05-16 | FLA 0 - 2 TOR | TOR | FLA |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 09:39 | FLA | Goal |
| 2 | 07:18 | FLA | Goal |
| 2 | 03:15 | FLA | Goal |
| 3 | 16:57 | FLA | Goal |
| 3 | 09:24 | FLA | Goal |
| 3 | 02:54 | FLA | Goal |
| 3 | 02:07 | FLA | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 53.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 6 Florida Panthers
Expected: 2.9 - 3.5