Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-05-18 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 6 Florida Panthers

Win Probability

TOR: 42.6%

FLA: 57.4%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.05

FLA: 3.37

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 48%

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Joseph Woll	34	28	6	82.4%	3.92	4	-2.08
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	20	19	1	95.0%	1.92	2	0.92

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 79% • TOR at home vs FLA: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	TOR 2 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA
2026-02-26	FLA 5 - 1 TOR	FLA	FLA
2026-01-06	TOR 4 - 1 FLA	TOR	TOR
2025-12-02	FLA 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	FLA
2025-05-18	TOR 1 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	13	2	1.23
1	FLA	20	0	0.79
2	TOR	7	0	0.13
2	FLA	30	3	2.14
3	TOR	15	0	0.56
3	FLA	10	1	0.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 6 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.0 - 3.4