Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-05-18 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 6 Florida Panthers

Win Probability

TOR: 43.2%

FLA: 56.8%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.07

FLA: 3.44

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 53%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 63% • TOR at home vs FLA: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	TOR 2 - 6 FLA	FLA	TOR
2026-02-26	FLA 5 - 1 TOR	FLA	FLA
2026-01-06	TOR 4 - 1 FLA	TOR	FLA
2025-12-02	FLA 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	FLA
2025-05-18	TOR 1 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	13	2	1.23
1	FLA	20	0	0.79
2	TOR	7	0	0.13
2	FLA	30	3	2.14
3	TOR	15	0	0.56
3	FLA	10	1	0.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 6 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.1 - 3.4