Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2025-05-10 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 4 - 0 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

CAR: 69.1%

WSH: 30.9%

Expected Goals

CAR: 4.09

WSH: 2.67

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 53%

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Frederik Andersen	21	21	0	100.0%	2.50	2	2.50
WSH	Logan Thompson	28	24	4	85.7%	3.00	1	-1.00

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • CAR at home vs WSH: 8-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-13	CAR 4 - 2 WSH	CAR	CAR
2026-10-02	CAR 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2026-01-31	WSH 4 - 3 CAR	WSH	CAR
2025-12-11	WSH 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-11-11	CAR 1 - 4 WSH	WSH	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	11	0	0.65
1	WSH	16	1	1.66
2	CAR	18	0	0.80
2	WSH	10	1	0.57
3	CAR	19	1	1.55
3	WSH	8	0	0.27

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 69.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 4 - 0 Washington Capitals

Expected: 4.1 - 2.7