Dallas Stars at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2025-05-07 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 2 - 3 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

Win Probability

WPG: 60.6%

DAL: 39.4%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.29

DAL: 2.64

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	24	21	3	87.5%	2.55	2	-0.45
DAL	Jake Oettinger	31	29	2	93.5%	2.65	2	0.65

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • WPG at home vs DAL: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	DAL 3 - 0 WPG	DAL	DAL
2026-02-02	DAL 4 - 3 WPG	DAL	DAL
2025-12-09	WPG 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-10-09	WPG 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-05-17	DAL 2 - 1 WPG	DAL	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	14	0	0.79
1	DAL	17	0	0.95
2	WPG	13	1	0.60
2	DAL	11	2	1.44
3	WPG	20	1	1.26
3	DAL	6	0	0.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 2 - 3 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.3 - 2.6