Dallas Stars at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2025-05-07 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 2 - 3 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

WPG: 55.1%

DAL: 44.9%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.08

DAL: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 41%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 72% • WPG at home vs DAL: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	DAL 3 - 0 WPG	DAL	DAL
2026-02-02	DAL 4 - 3 WPG	DAL	DAL
2025-12-09	WPG 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-10-09	WPG 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	WPG
2025-05-17	DAL 2 - 1 WPG	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	14	0	0.79
1	DAL	17	0	0.95
2	WPG	13	1	0.60
2	DAL	11	2	1.44
3	WPG	20	1	1.26
3	DAL	6	0	0.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 2 - 3 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.1 - 2.9