Dallas Stars at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2025-05-09 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 4 - 0 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

WPG: 58.8%

DAL: 41.2%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.22

DAL: 2.65

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 38%

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	21	21	0	100.0%	2.32	2	2.32
DAL	Jake Oettinger	25	21	4	84.0%	3.79	2	-0.21

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • WPG at home vs DAL: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	DAL 3 - 0 WPG	DAL	DAL
2026-02-02	DAL 4 - 3 WPG	DAL	DAL
2025-12-09	WPG 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-10-09	WPG 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-05-17	DAL 2 - 1 WPG	DAL	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	20	1	1.80
1	DAL	15	0	0.76
2	WPG	15	0	0.68
2	DAL	14	1	1.02
3	WPG	11	1	1.30
3	DAL	8	1	0.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 4 - 0 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.2 - 2.7