Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-05-11 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 5 - 2 Winnipeg Jets

Win Probability

DAL: 54.0%

WPG: 46.0%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.06

WPG: 3.59

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 51%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 72% • DAL at home vs WPG: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	DAL 3 - 0 WPG	DAL	DAL
2026-02-02	DAL 4 - 3 WPG	DAL	DAL
2025-12-09	WPG 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-10-09	WPG 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	WPG
2025-05-17	DAL 2 - 1 WPG	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	17	1	1.23
1	WPG	16	1	0.88
2	DAL	12	1	1.12
2	WPG	13	0	0.73
3	DAL	12	3	2.47
3	WPG	16	0	0.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 5 - 2 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.1 - 3.6