Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions
2025-05-11 • American Airlines Center
Dallas Stars 5 - 2 Winnipeg Jets
🚨 Upset Win (63% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
DAL: 37.1%
WPG: 62.9%
Expected Goals
DAL: 2.69
WPG: 2.95
Total Goals
Median: 5.4
Over 5.5: 43%
Over 6.5: 30%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 35-12-6 | 0.899 SV% | 2.59 GAA
WPG
Connor Hellebuyck - 23-23-11 | 0.895 SV% | 2.86 GAA
| Stat | DAL | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.907 | 0.907 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.916 | 0.867 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.905 | 0.860 |
| GAA | 2.57 | 2.51 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • DAL at home vs WPG: 7-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | DAL 3 - 0 WPG | DAL | DAL |
| 2026-02-02 | DAL 4 - 3 WPG | DAL | DAL |
| 2025-12-09 | WPG 3 - 4 DAL | DAL | DAL |
| 2025-10-09 | WPG 4 - 5 DAL | DAL | DAL |
| 2025-05-17 | DAL 2 - 1 WPG | DAL | WPG |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 02:27 | DAL | Goal |
| 1 | 09:53 | DAL | Goal |
| 1 | 15:12 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 10:07 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 03:51 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 04:40 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 14:06 | DAL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 62.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 5.6
Score Breakdown
Dallas Stars 5 - 2 Winnipeg Jets
Expected: 2.7 - 3.0
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