Dallas Stars at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2025-05-15 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 4 - 0 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

WPG: 64.8%

DAL: 35.2%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.27

DAL: 2.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 44%

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	22	22	0	100.0%	2.23	0	2.23
DAL	Jake Oettinger	35	31	4	88.6%	4.05	2	0.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • WPG at home vs DAL: 6-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	DAL 3 - 0 WPG	DAL	DAL
2026-02-02	DAL 4 - 3 WPG	DAL	DAL
2025-12-09	WPG 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-10-09	WPG 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	WPG
2025-05-17	DAL 2 - 1 WPG	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	15	0	1.35
1	DAL	8	0	0.65
2	WPG	13	1	0.96
2	DAL	8	0	0.56
3	WPG	15	1	1.75
3	DAL	19	0	1.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.3

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 4 - 0 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.3 - 2.0