Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-05-06 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 4 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 50.7%

EDM: 49.3%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.37

EDM: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • VGK at home vs EDM: 2-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	EDM 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-26	VGK 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2026-03-08	VGK 2 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2025-12-21	EDM 4 - 3 VGK	EDM	EDM
2025-05-14	VGK 0 - 1 EDM	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	13	1	0.97
1	EDM	16	1	1.07
2	VGK	9	0	0.34
2	EDM	17	2	1.43
3	VGK	18	0	1.18
3	EDM	13	0	0.60

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 4 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1