Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions
2025-05-06 • T-Mobile Arena
Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 4 Edmonton Oilers
🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
VGK: 59.0%
EDM: 41.0%
Expected Goals
VGK: 3.14
EDM: 2.95
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 54%
Over 6.5: 40%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-6-6 | 0.895 SV% | 2.53 GAA
EDM
Tristan Jarry - 15-7-2 | 0.890 SV% | 3.18 GAA
| Stat | VGK | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.895 | 0.906 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.891 | 0.841 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 2.50 | 2.73 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 54% • VGK at home vs EDM: 2-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-21 | EDM 4 - 3 VGK | EDM | EDM |
| 2025-05-14 | VGK 0 - 1 EDM | EDM | VGK |
| 2025-05-12 | EDM 3 - 0 VGK | EDM | EDM |
| 2025-05-10 | EDM 3 - 4 VGK | VGK | EDM |
| 2025-05-08 | VGK 4 - 5 EDM | EDM | VGK |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 02:13 | VGK | Goal |
| 1 | 09:03 | VGK | Goal |
| 1 | 16:26 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 00:57 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 16:58 | EDM | Goal |
| 3 | 18:14 | EDM | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 59.0%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 4 Edmonton Oilers
Expected: 3.1 - 2.9