Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-05-08 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 5 Edmonton Oilers

Win Probability

VGK: 48.8%

EDM: 51.2%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.47

EDM: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • VGK at home vs EDM: 2-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	EDM 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-26	VGK 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2026-03-08	VGK 2 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2025-12-21	EDM 4 - 3 VGK	EDM	EDM
2025-05-14	VGK 0 - 1 EDM	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	10	1	1.10
1	EDM	11	1	0.67
2	VGK	19	0	1.88
2	EDM	16	0	0.67
3	VGK	15	0	0.64
3	EDM	15	0	0.84
4	VGK	10	0	0.32
4	EDM	16	2	1.65

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 5 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0