Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-05-10 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 54.1%

VGK: 45.9%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.49

VGK: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	24	20	4	83.3%	3.22	4	-0.78
VGK	Adin Hill	20	17	3	85.0%	2.85	4	-0.15

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • EDM at home vs VGK: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	EDM 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	EDM
2026-03-26	VGK 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	EDM
2026-03-08	VGK 2 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2025-12-21	EDM 4 - 3 VGK	EDM	EDM
2025-05-14	VGK 0 - 1 EDM	EDM	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	14	3	1.60
1	VGK	13	3	1.80
2	EDM	14	0	0.54
2	VGK	10	0	0.64
3	EDM	11	1	0.71
3	VGK	10	1	0.79

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0