Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-05-14 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 0 - 1 Edmonton Oilers

Win Probability

VGK: 44.3%

EDM: 55.7%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.10

EDM: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 41%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • VGK at home vs EDM: 2-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	EDM 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-26	VGK 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2026-03-08	VGK 2 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2025-12-21	EDM 4 - 3 VGK	EDM	EDM
2025-05-14	VGK 0 - 1 EDM	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	11	0	0.26
1	EDM	12	0	0.67
2	VGK	16	0	0.75
2	EDM	12	0	0.56
3	VGK	11	1	0.84
3	EDM	8	0	0.42
4	VGK	3	0	0.04
4	EDM	13	1	0.82

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 0 - 1 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0