Carolina Hurricanes at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-05-24 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 6 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

FLA: 45.1%

CAR: 54.9%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.44

CAR: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

CAR

Pyotr Kochetkov - 6-2-0 | 0.899 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	25	23	2	92.0%	1.79	0	-0.21
CAR	Pyotr Kochetkov	28	22	6	78.6%	3.44	2	-2.56

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • FLA at home vs CAR: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-16	CAR 9 - 1 FLA	CAR	CAR
2025-12-23	CAR 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	CAR
2025-12-19	FLA 4 - 3 CAR	FLA	CAR
2025-05-28	CAR 3 - 5 FLA	FLA	CAR
2025-05-26	FLA 0 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	12	0	0.73
1	CAR	11	0	0.35
2	FLA	17	0	1.01
2	CAR	15	0	0.71
3	FLA	19	2	1.70
3	CAR	16	0	0.73

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 6 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 3.4 - 2.8