Edmonton Oilers at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-05-21 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 6 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Win (61% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 38.9%

EDM: 61.1%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.25

EDM: 3.61

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • DAL at home vs EDM: 6-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	DAL 7 - 2 EDM	DAL	DAL
2025-11-25	EDM 3 - 8 DAL	DAL	EDM
2025-11-04	DAL 4 - 3 EDM	DAL	DAL
2025-05-29	DAL 3 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-05-27	EDM 4 - 1 DAL	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	13	0	0.68
1	EDM	21	0	1.24
2	DAL	12	0	0.52
2	EDM	14	0	1.08
3	DAL	14	3	1.92
3	EDM	11	0	0.79

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 6 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.3 - 3.6