Edmonton Oilers at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-05-23 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 0 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

Win Probability

DAL: 35.6%

EDM: 64.4%

Expected Goals

DAL: 2.65

EDM: 3.38

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	25	22	3	88.0%	3.36	1	0.36
EDM	Stuart Skinner	25	25	0	100.0%	3.39	3	3.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 69% • DAL at home vs EDM: 8-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	DAL 7 - 2 EDM	DAL	DAL
2025-11-25	EDM 3 - 8 DAL	DAL	EDM
2025-11-04	DAL 4 - 3 EDM	DAL	DAL
2025-05-29	DAL 3 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-05-27	EDM 4 - 1 DAL	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	13	1	0.85
1	EDM	16	0	1.00
2	DAL	12	1	0.77
2	EDM	16	0	1.30
3	DAL	21	1	1.77
3	EDM	7	1	1.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 0 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 2.7 - 3.4