Dallas Stars at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-05-25 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 6 - 1 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

EDM: 61.7%

DAL: 38.3%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.75

DAL: 2.58

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 42%

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	34	33	1	97.1%	3.95	4	2.95
DAL	Jake Oettinger	24	18	6	75.0%	2.33	0	-3.67

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • EDM at home vs DAL: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	DAL 7 - 2 EDM	DAL	DAL
2025-11-25	EDM 3 - 8 DAL	DAL	EDM
2025-11-04	DAL 4 - 3 EDM	DAL	DAL
2025-05-29	DAL 3 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-05-27	EDM 4 - 1 DAL	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	15	0	0.68
1	DAL	16	1	0.92
2	EDM	8	0	0.53
2	DAL	29	3	2.45
3	EDM	12	0	1.12
3	DAL	7	0	0.58

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 6 - 1 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.8 - 2.6