Florida Panthers at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-06-06 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 5 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 50.9%

FLA: 49.1%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.51

FLA: 2.83

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 45%

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	42	37	5	88.1%	4.08	1	-0.92
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	46	42	4	91.3%	5.18	2	1.18

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 63% • EDM at home vs FLA: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-19	EDM 0 - 4 FLA	FLA	EDM
2025-11-22	FLA 3 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-06-17	FLA 5 - 1 EDM	FLA	EDM
2025-06-14	EDM 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	EDM
2025-06-12	FLA 4 - 5 EDM	EDM	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	20	0	1.90
1	FLA	17	0	1.42
2	EDM	13	0	0.98
2	FLA	25	1	1.54
3	EDM	14	1	1.40
3	FLA	7	0	0.26
4	EDM	20	1	0.79
4	FLA	14	0	0.55
5	EDM	2	0	0.11
5	FLA	4	0	0.32

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 5 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.5 - 2.8