Edmonton Oilers at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-06-12 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 4 - 5 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

FLA: 53.3%

EDM: 46.7%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.46

EDM: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	35	30	5	85.7%	3.96	3	-1.04
EDM	Stuart Skinner	40	36	4	90.0%	3.72	1	-0.28

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 63% • FLA at home vs EDM: 7-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-19	EDM 0 - 4 FLA	FLA	EDM
2025-11-22	FLA 3 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-06-17	FLA 5 - 1 EDM	FLA	EDM
2025-06-14	EDM 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	EDM
2025-06-12	FLA 4 - 5 EDM	EDM	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	26	1	2.23
1	EDM	12	1	0.51
2	FLA	10	0	0.38
2	EDM	24	2	2.40
3	FLA	17	0	0.73
3	EDM	10	0	0.64
4	FLA	8	0	0.37
4	EDM	7	0	0.42

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 4 - 5 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.5 - 3.1