Chicago Blackhawks at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-10-07 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 3 - 2 Chicago Blackhawks

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

FLA: 48.6%

CHI: 51.4%

Expected Goals

FLA: 2.79

CHI: 2.75

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

CHI

Spencer Knight - 11-11-6 | 0.909 SV% | 2.63 GAA

Stat	FLA	CHI
Season SV%	0.888	0.909
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.80	2.63

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	19	17	2	89.5%	2.13	2	0.13
CHI	Spencer Knight	37	34	3	91.9%	3.91	2	0.91

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • FLA at home vs CHI: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-25	CHI 1 - 5 FLA	FLA	CHI
2025-10-07	FLA 3 - 2 CHI	FLA	CHI
2025-02-01	FLA 5 - 1 CHI	FLA	FLA
2024-11-21	CHI 3 - 1 FLA	CHI	FLA
2023-11-12	FLA 4 - 3 CHI	FLA	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	25	1	1.77
1	CHI	7	1	0.48
2	FLA	11	1	0.82
2	CHI	12	0	0.78
3	FLA	14	0	1.32
3	CHI	13	1	0.86

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.5

Score Breakdown