Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2025-10-08 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 2 Montreal Canadiens
🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 50.0%
MTL: 50.0%
Expected Goals
TOR: 3.10
MTL: 4.06
Total Goals
Median: 7.0
Over 5.5: 73%
Over 6.5: 58%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 18-5-4 | 0.892 SV% | 2.96 GAA
| Stat | TOR | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.914 | 0.889 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.910 | 0.903 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.840 | 0.939 |
| GAA | 2.74 | 3.01 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TOR at home vs MTL: 4-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-06 | TOR 1 - 2 MTL | MTL | TOR |
| 2025-11-22 | MTL 5 - 2 TOR | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-10-08 | TOR 5 - 2 MTL | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-04-12 | TOR 1 - 0 MTL | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-01-18 | MTL 3 - 7 TOR | TOR | MTL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:00 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 05:39 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 01:30 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 05:40 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 09:02 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 18:28 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 19:45 | TOR | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 50.0%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 7.2
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 2 Montreal Canadiens
Expected: 3.1 - 4.1