Boston Bruins at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-10-08 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 1 - 3 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 50.7%

BOS: 49.3%

Expected Goals

WSH: 2.86

BOS: 2.83

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Stat	WSH	BOS
Season SV%	0.913	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.39	2.84

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	22	19	3	86.4%	2.48	1	-0.52
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	36	35	1	97.2%	4.27	4	3.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • WSH at home vs BOS: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	WSH 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	WSH
2026-03-07	BOS 3 - 1 WSH	BOS	BOS
2025-10-08	WSH 1 - 3 BOS	BOS	WSH
2025-04-01	BOS 3 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-12-31	WSH 3 - 1 BOS	WSH	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	12	1	1.13
1	BOS	12	0	0.42
2	WSH	27	2	2.06
2	BOS	11	0	0.62
3	WSH	16	1	1.08
3	BOS	20	1	1.44

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown