Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-10-08 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 Calgary Flames (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 50.6%

CGY: 49.4%

Expected Goals

EDM: 2.98

CGY: 3.60

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • EDM at home vs CGY: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	CGY 4 - 3 EDM	CGY	EDM
2025-12-27	CGY 3 - 2 EDM	CGY	CGY
2025-12-23	EDM 5 - 1 CGY	EDM	EDM
2025-10-08	EDM 3 - 4 CGY	CGY	EDM
2025-03-29	EDM 3 - 2 CGY	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	13	0	0.70
1	CGY	9	0	0.40
2	EDM	14	1	1.17
2	CGY	13	1	1.36
3	EDM	13	0	0.84
3	CGY	11	0	0.49
4	EDM	7	0	0.78
4	CGY	3	0	0.36
5	EDM	8	1	1.42
5	CGY	8	2	2.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.0 - 3.6