Los Angeles Kings at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-10-08 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 6 Los Angeles Kings (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (66% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 66.0%

LAK: 34.0%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.10

LAK: 3.46

Total Goals

Median: 5.5

Over 5.5: 50%

Over 6.5: 37%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • VGK at home vs LAK: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-25	LAK 4 - 6 VGK	VGK	LAK
2026-02-05	VGK 4 - 1 LAK	VGK	VGK
2026-01-14	LAK 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	LAK
2025-10-08	VGK 5 - 6 LAK	LAK	VGK
2025-03-09	VGK 5 - 6 LAK	LAK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	14	0	0.93
1	LAK	10	1	0.62
2	VGK	19	0	1.01
2	LAK	8	0	0.56
3	VGK	12	0	0.85
3	LAK	10	2	0.78
4	VGK	4	0	0.36
4	LAK	3	0	0.24
5	VGK	3	1	1.10
5	LAK	3	2	1.70

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 66.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 6 Los Angeles Kings

Expected: 3.1 - 3.5