New York Rangers at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-10-09 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 0 - 4 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 58.3%

NYR: 41.7%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.15

NYR: 2.71

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 39%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Alex Lyon - 10-6-3 | 0.906 SV% | 2.82 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Stat	BUF	NYR
Season SV%	0.906	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	2.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Alex Lyon	33	29	4	87.9%	2.41	1	-1.59
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	37	37	0	100.0%	2.42	0	2.42

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • BUF at home vs NYR: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-08	NYR 3 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-01-08	NYR 2 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-10-09	BUF 0 - 4 NYR	NYR	BUF
2025-02-22	BUF 8 - 2 NYR	BUF	BUF
2024-12-11	BUF 2 - 3 NYR	NYR	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	15	0	0.43
1	NYR	20	0	0.98
2	BUF	21	0	1.29
2	NYR	9	0	0.42
3	BUF	16	0	0.70
3	NYR	17	1	1.01

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown