Philadelphia Flyers at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-10-09 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 2 - 1 Philadelphia Flyers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

FLA: 60.3%

PHI: 39.7%

Expected Goals

FLA: 4.46

PHI: 1.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	FLA	PHI
Season SV%	0.888	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.80	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	20	19	1	95.0%	2.17	2	1.17
PHI	Dan Vladar	34	32	2	94.1%	3.27	1	1.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • FLA at home vs PHI: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-26	FLA 2 - 4 PHI	PHI	FLA
2025-10-13	PHI 5 - 2 FLA	PHI	FLA
2025-10-09	FLA 2 - 1 PHI	FLA	FLA
2025-01-13	PHI 4 - 3 FLA	PHI	FLA
2024-12-05	PHI 5 - 7 FLA	FLA	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	18	0	0.73
1	PHI	10	1	0.75
2	FLA	20	0	1.36
2	PHI	14	1	0.85
3	FLA	13	1	1.18
3	PHI	8	0	0.57

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown