New Jersey Devils at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2025-10-09 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 6 - 3 New Jersey Devils

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CAR: 51.7%

NJD: 48.3%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.65

NJD: 3.29

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

Stat	CAR	NJD
Season SV%	0.865	0.884
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.38	3.32

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Frederik Andersen	22	19	3	86.4%	2.08	1	-0.92
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	33	27	6	81.8%	4.43	4	-1.57

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 88% • CAR at home vs NJD: 9-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	CAR 5 - 2 NJD	CAR	CAR
2026-01-17	NJD 1 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-01-04	NJD 1 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-10-09	CAR 6 - 3 NJD	CAR	CAR
2025-04-29	CAR 5 - 4 NJD	CAR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	19	0	0.99
1	NJD	10	1	0.66
2	CAR	19	2	1.70
2	NJD	14	0	0.87
3	CAR	16	2	1.74
3	NJD	8	0	0.55

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown