Dallas Stars at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2025-10-09 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 4 - 5 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WPG: 55.5%

DAL: 44.5%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.38

DAL: 3.67

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Stat	WPG	DAL
Season SV%	0.907	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	2.57

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	37	32	5	86.5%	4.81	3	-0.19
DAL	Jake Oettinger	25	21	4	84.0%	3.00	1	-1.00

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • WPG at home vs DAL: 6-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	DAL 3 - 0 WPG	DAL	DAL
2026-02-02	DAL 4 - 3 WPG	DAL	DAL
2025-12-09	WPG 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-10-09	WPG 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	WPG
2025-05-17	DAL 2 - 1 WPG	DAL	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	9	0	0.57
1	DAL	14	1	0.87
2	WPG	13	1	1.37
2	DAL	20	0	1.63
3	WPG	14	0	1.05
3	DAL	15	2	2.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown