Dallas Stars at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2025-10-09 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 4 - 5 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

WPG: 52.0%

DAL: 48.0%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.56

DAL: 3.59

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 72% • WPG at home vs DAL: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	DAL 3 - 0 WPG	DAL	DAL
2026-02-02	DAL 4 - 3 WPG	DAL	DAL
2025-12-09	WPG 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-10-09	WPG 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	WPG
2025-05-17	DAL 2 - 1 WPG	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	9	0	0.57
1	DAL	14	1	0.87
2	WPG	13	1	1.37
2	DAL	20	0	1.63
3	WPG	14	0	1.05
3	DAL	15	2	2.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 7.2

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 4 - 5 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.6 - 3.6