Calgary Flames at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2025-10-09 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 5 - 1 Calgary Flames

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VAN: 61.2%

CGY: 38.8%

Expected Goals

VAN: 4.05

CGY: 3.95

Total Goals

Median: 5.4

Over 5.5: 49%

Over 6.5: 37%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Stat	VAN	CGY
Season SV%	0.905	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.72	2.82

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Thatcher Demko	18	17	1	94.4%	2.26	2	1.26
CGY	Dustin Wolf	26	21	5	80.8%	2.18	1	-2.82

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • VAN at home vs CGY: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	CGY 7 - 3 VAN	CGY	CGY
2025-11-23	VAN 2 - 5 CGY	CGY	CGY
2025-10-09	VAN 5 - 1 CGY	VAN	VAN
2025-03-12	CGY 3 - 4 VAN	VAN	CGY
2024-12-31	CGY 3 - 1 VAN	CGY	CGY

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	10	0	0.38
1	CGY	14	0	0.62
2	VAN	11	0	0.64
2	CGY	15	1	0.91
3	VAN	17	1	1.16
3	CGY	7	1	0.73

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 8.0

Score Breakdown