Vegas Golden Knights at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2025-10-09 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 3 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights (OT)

Win Probability

SJS: 30.0%

VGK: 70.0%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.67

VGK: 4.27

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 91% • SJS at home vs VGK: 0-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-11	SJS 2 - 7 VGK	VGK	SJS
2025-12-23	VGK 7 - 2 SJS	VGK	VGK
2025-11-29	VGK 4 - 3 SJS	VGK	VGK
2025-10-09	SJS 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-07	SJS 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	12	1	0.86
1	VGK	17	2	1.14
2	SJS	10	0	0.34
2	VGK	15	0	0.60
3	SJS	13	3	1.91
3	VGK	13	0	0.73
4	SJS	0	0	0.00
4	VGK	2	0	0.30

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 70.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 3 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 2.7 - 4.3