Vegas Golden Knights at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2025-10-09 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 3 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SJS: 27.5%

VGK: 72.5%

Expected Goals

SJS: 1.43

VGK: 2.36

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SJS

Alex Nedeljkovic - 5-7-2 | 0.895 SV% | 3.06 GAA

VGK

Akira Schmid - 11-4-4 | 0.895 SV% | 2.50 GAA

Stat	SJS	VGK
Season SV%	0.895	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.06	2.50

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Alex Nedeljkovic	31	27	4	87.1%	2.77	2	-1.23
VGK	Akira Schmid	23	20	3	87.0%	3.10	4	0.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 100% • SJS at home vs VGK: 0-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-11	SJS 2 - 7 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-12-23	VGK 7 - 2 SJS	VGK	VGK
2025-11-29	VGK 4 - 3 SJS	VGK	VGK
2025-10-09	SJS 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-07	SJS 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	12	1	0.86
1	VGK	17	2	1.14
2	SJS	10	0	0.34
2	VGK	15	0	0.60
3	SJS	13	3	1.91
3	VGK	13	0	0.73
4	SJS	0	0	0.00
4	VGK	2	0	0.30

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 72.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 3.8

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 3 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 1.4 - 2.4